The destroyer SDS Arrow sank, killing dozens of sailors.
The Arrow's crew was a penal unit composed of criminals, sent out instead of serving their sentences. Since they had been told they were being sent on the easy mission of merely controlling the river, there had been no significant resistance.
Criminals who would have been sentenced to death or life imprisonment would now be portrayed as heroes who died serving the South and used for propaganda.
That was the full extent of the concern over the casualties.
"Lucilla, what about the intelligence mages we dispatched to the East?"
As expected, my attention was more focused on the mages.
We could produce another destroyer at any time, but finding mages loyal to us and willing to serve in intelligence was not easy.
Of course, we had been systematizing and teaching the magic that had previously been passed down from master to disciple, but... it would still take several years before we saw results.
"Fifteen of the twenty have returned safely, and the remaining five are on their way back. We believe none of them were discovered locally."
"That's a relief."
Even so, I thought we'd done a decent job of manufacturing a justification.
In my past life on Earth, a certain shrine nation shelled Chinese cities for no reason and brazenly claimed the moral high ground. Compared to that, my method was a fairly clean way to manufacture a justification, wasn't it?
"What is public opinion in the East like right now?"
"There is currently some suspicion that this was a Southern false-flag operation... but there does not appear to be any clear evidence yet. Should we work to prevent rumors like that from spreading as well?"
"No. Leave that much alone."
It was better to leave the suspicion that this was a false-flag operation alone.
People tend to bounce back harder when pressed, so the more we tried to silence and suppress them, the more those suspicions would flare up.
"What about the Center?"
"There has been no particular response yet. They appear to be devising a countermeasure."
I could tell one thing for certain from this.
The Center was not yet prepared to go to war.
A century of accumulated corruption, an army's blades dulled by long peace, and poorly trained soldiers could not possibly be ready to fight at a moment's notice.
"The Center probably doesn't have the strength to fight right now, either."
The problem was that the same went for us.
For the past year, the South had focused on producing submarines. With a confrontation with the East approaching, we had not had the time to devote our resources to land forces.
We had factories capable of producing tanks, but we had not even completed a tank design yet.
Of course, we wouldn't lose with machine guns and field artillery, but relying on those alone would inevitably make our advance drag on.
A prolonged advance meant greater losses. Unlike the Center, which could replace its losses on the spot, our losses would be difficult to recover from.
'We'll be busy once we've swept through the East.'
There was only one conclusion.
We had to make absolutely certain that the East could not defy us, then blockade its ports and cut the Center off from the outside world.
For now, we were somehow preventing outside intervention by ignoring communications from the other great powers, but... if the besieged Center accepted outside intervention, things would become complicated.
'The great powers will try to take bites out of the Empire through this opening, one way or another.'
That was why I could not afford to reduce our naval investment, either.
Mages and knights, an incompetent and corrupt upper class, and leaders infatuated with women had left the Empire trapped in a bygone era.
The Empire of today resembled nineteenth-century Qing China. It was in a state where being torn apart at any moment would hardly be surprising.
"If the newspaper articles are ready, start working on them immediately. Time is money for us right now."
"Understood, Your Grace."
***
July 28.
The summer heat had begun to intensify, but something else was burning even hotter.
It was the public sentiment among the Southern citizens.
[ The sinking of the destroyer SDS Arrow... the death toll is estimated at around 40... ]
[ The patriotism of the young men who sailed aboard the Arrow... ]
[ The East has declared war twice. Do they really think of us as fellow citizens? ]
[ The Imperial Family remains silent on this incident. Whose side is His Highness the Crown Prince on? ]
A warship, something that could be called an extension of our territory, had been sunk.
And it had happened during legitimate military activity authorized by the Crown Prince.
Of course, the Crown Prince had granted that permission without knowing this would happen, but such a minor truth was irrelevant.
The apparent chain of cause and effect was ultimately casting the East as the villain.
On the surface, the East had been the first to declare war. On the surface, the East was also responsible for sinking the warship.
Naturally, the East felt it had been wronged.
"This is a statement from the Eastern Grand Duke's residence. They claim that they did not engage in any hostile action against the Southern destroyer squadron, and that this was merely an impulsive act by some young mages."
"Yes, of course."
We printed the East's statement in the newspaper exactly as it was. We merely added a little seasoning.
[ Eastern Grand Duke's residence declares, 'This has nothing to do with us' ]
[ No one has been punished for this incident. Does the East truly want peace? ]
[ Eastern Grand Duke's residence begins cutting off the tail. What is the central government doing? ]
[ Where did the lives of our young men go? ]
The East was only saying that it had not ordered the attack and therefore was not responsible, but from the outside, it looked enough like an attempt to cut off the tail.
Moreover, it was only natural that they could not punish those involved. Most of the people who could have been punished had been killed by naval gunfire.
The old mages who understood politics well had not attacked the destroyer.
And the young, hot-blooded mages were not accomplished enough in magic to protect themselves from naval gunfire.
Without any justification, the East's public-relations campaign had no traction.
"Public opinion has swung to our side."
The 'public opinion' he was referring to did not mean only public opinion in the South.
People in the South had not exactly liked people from other regions for quite some time.
The real problem lay with the opinions of Eastern citizens and the citizens of the Empire as a whole.
Nobles and commoners viewed the world differently.
Unlike the twenty-first century, when the information age had dawned and people could learn about events on the other side of the Earth from the comfort of their homes, rumors and posters were the only windows this era had into what was happening in the world.
"Then let's fan the rumors a little more."
And fortunately, we had an excellent means of manipulating the opinions of the Empire's citizens.
Our Southern companies, which had put down roots throughout the Empire.
Southern companies put up posters claiming that what had happened to the South was unjust. They drew people in by discounting a few important goods, then naturally got them to see the posters.
Under those circumstances, the Center found it difficult to decide to intervene recklessly.
"What? Public opinion has already turned that quickly?"
"Your Highness the Crown Prince, I think it would be best for us to issue a statement soon as well. If we remain silent, it will look far too blatant as though we are taking the East's side."
In fact, the entire cause of this lay with the Crown Prince, who had permitted 'monitoring' without specifying how that monitoring was to be conducted.
Even so, the Crown Prince could not raise that issue now. The inability to openly expose a leader's mistake was a characteristic of every dictatorship.
While the Center was floundering, the South finished organizing its position.
This was thanks to the rapid decision-making created by the South's unusual structure: there was no opposition, the parliament was the Grand Duke's rubber stamp, and the military was his attack dog.
"We can no longer forgive the East. Once may have been a mistake, but carrying out acts tantamount to declaring war more than once is proof that the East thinks of nothing but war."
"Therefore, the Southern Grand Duke's residence hereby officially declares that a state of war exists between the South and the East as of August 1."
"Indiscriminate bombing of Rheinwald, the Eastern capital, and its surrounding areas will begin one week from now. Please evacuate in advance."
"This measure will continue until the East admits its wrongdoing and implements the following measures to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again."
Along with a threat to turn the Eastern capital into a literal sea of fire, the South presented the following conditions.
1. Southern officers will be included in the Eastern military to monitor whether the East is preparing for war.
2. Since the East may start another war, all vessels using the East's major ports will undergo a quarantine inspection by Southern inspectors.
3. The East will compensate the South for the money it spent in this war.
4. Eastern Grand Duke Edward will be deposed, and a new Grand Duke with strongly antiwar views will be installed.
Under normal circumstances, we would have been cautious to avoid a dispute with the Center, but there was no longer any need for that.
In any case, war with the Center could no longer be avoided.
Then, before the Center had time to prepare for war, we would restrict its contact with the great powers.
The demands—to effectively blockade the East's major ports, extract money from it, turn the Eastern Navy into a second fleet for the Southern Navy, and replace the Grand Duke with someone more amenable to the South—were delivered to the Eastern Grand Duke's residence and the Center.